Draft Party Blog

2012 NFL Season Preview?

Posted: 19th September 2012 by The Draft Party Host in Football
Tags: Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Blaine Gabbert, C.J. Spiller, Dr. Manhattan, Greg Schiano, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassell, Matthew Stafford, Mike Tomlin, Peyton Manning, Predictions, RGIII, Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, Ryan Tannehill, Sean Payton, Tim Tebow, Tom Brady, Wade Phillips

“What, are we letting this guy make NFL predictions now?”

You can look at this article one of two ways. One would be to review my well informed (but brief) analysis and then say, “hey, too late you lazy fuck – you have to get your predictions in before the regular season starts.” But isn’t that shortsighted? Isn’t the more intellectually honest way to view this post as a brave man making his choices with little information and without a net?

Let’s face it, those guys making predictions before the season are pussies. They can say whatever they want and if they are way off they can say things like, “you really can’t tell anything from the preseason” or “who would have expected Brian Urlacher to get hurt?” It’s also easy to do the ever-popular bit of revising your predictions after 8 games once you have a better feel for how each team is performing. I’m doing neither here loyal Draft Party patriots. I’m going to make season predictions that I will stand behind 100% with a 12.5% game sample size. Yes, you are reading history and I’m glad you’re here for it. (FN 1)

Since the season has already started, I feel it is in the best interests of everyone if I keep my analysis as brief as possible. Therefore, please find below my predicted order of finish for each of the divisions followed by my playoff prognostications. Your commentary, as always, is welcome and encouraged.

I’m a lot like this guy, but I probably have more at stake.

NFC East:

1. Philadelphia Eagles – Mega-team experiments tend to do better in year 2 than in year 1. They dominated the draft and if the offensive line can do anything they should be explosive. Should.

2. New York Giants – They have a dominant passing game and defensive line. That’s probably enough to overcome the shit pile that is their back 7 and running game.

3. Dallas Cowboys – If I had a time machine I’d go back and tell my mother to abort me so I didn’t have to watch the Seahawks game. Any team that has that type of give-up in them doesn’t have the stomach to make the playoffs in this league.

4. Washington Redskins – Beating the Saints and then losing to the Rams. That is probably a fair summary of how this season will go for the ‘Skins. After losing two of their best defenders I would just enjoy RGIII and wait for reinforcements next year if I were a Washington fan.

“Look lady, if he is born he will watch that game. If you truly loved him you’d do the right thing and end his future suffering.”

NFC North:

1. Green Bay Packers – The offense will get on track. The defense can’t get any more disorganized. This is a good organization that will right the ship.

2. Detroit Lions – Assuming Matthew Stafford stays upright the entire season, I can’t see them regressing out of the playoffs.

3. Chicago Bears – No way Cutler makes it the entire season with that pile of dicks on the offensive line. Without him they are completely fucked.

4. Minnesota Vikings – There is nothing about this team that gives me any reason to hope for their future.

He may be good, but he has the most punchable face in football.

NFC South:

1. Atlanta Falcons – They’ll either finally put together a full season or we can write them off as pussies. I think they may have the sack for the fight.

2. Carolina Panthers – I don’t know if more than two games will separate the Panthers and the next two teams. They play hard and seem to want it, and that counts for something in this league. They also have a force of nature at quarterback who will probably be the best player on the field in several games this year.

3. New Orleans Saints – Sean Payton is the best play caller in the league and they have dealt with too much shit to keep it together an entire year. They missed their window last year when Alex Smith screwed them with the best game of his life.

4. Tampa Bay Buccanners – They will win a few they’re not supposed to and will punch people in the dick, but they still have a year to go.

“I like to punch dicks. So what?”

NFC West:

1. Seattle Seahawks – I swear to God I was going to pick this before the season and this is not just a reaction to the Cowboys game. They are decent on both sides of the ball and play really well at home.

2. San Francisco 49ers – I was more sure about this before the season started. I’ve been waiting for Alex Smith to turn into a pumpkin with a dick in its mouth but it hasn’t happened yet. I assume this will begin in week 3. I mean, seriously, Trent Dilfer likes the guy so how good can he be?

3. Arizona Cardinals – Eehh.

4. St. Louis Rams – Uuuffff.

Much more interesting than the NFC West

AFC East:

1. New England Patriots – I see no compelling reason why they won’t eventually walk away with the division and then be a serious playoff threat except that the offensive line that has kept Mr. Handsome clean for so many years is starting to show some cracks. (FN 2)

2. Buffalo Bills – They really turned the momentum of last year’s great start into a wet fart. If C.J. Spiller can stay anywhere close to keeping up his current pace this team should get to at least 9 wins.

3. New York Jets – Replacing Mark Sanchez with Tim Tebow would be like curing your AIDS with cancer. And the defense is starting to fall apart.

4. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill is your Stay Puft Marshmallow Man. He may seem like your average, harmless idiot sheep-fucker, but he will be your destroyer Dolphins fans.

AIDS-curing Cancer

AFC North:

1. Baltimore Ravens – Is it weird to say things like, “can you just get out of Flacco’s way and let him run the offense”? This is one of the few teams in the league that has an offense and defense that can win them a game when they need it. (FN 3)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers – I hate this fucking collection of rapists and assholes, but goddamnit they always hold it together and play well. I largely credit Mike Tomlin who I really like despite my best instincts.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – Name the last time Cincinnati had good back-to-back seasons. And do you think Andy Dalton is really going to be the one to reverse that?

4. Cleveland Browns – I think this blog sums it up nicely.

Now this is a dude that could permanently turn around the Bengals.

AFC South:

1. Houston Texans – This division is God-awful, their offense is potent and their defense is quietly one of the best in the league. This is not rocket surgery.

2. Tennessee Titans – This team seems to float eternally around the .500 mark. More of that this year.

3. Indianapolis Colts – The Colts will lose a lot this year, but they are not the Jags.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Blaine Gabbert.

The mustache will not put up with you for long.

AFC West:

1. San Diego Chargers – I am going to pick these fucks to wind until they actually do. Since they usually spend the first half of the year farting all over the field, I think it is may be a harbinger that they finally started 2-0 in the year everyone seems to have given them up for dead.

2. Denver Broncos – I don’t know if Peyton has all the magic back this season. Give it a year.

3. Kansas City Chiefs – I guess they’ll run the ball and stuff. Let’s be honest – as long as Matt Cassell is the captain of the ship it is going to regularly hit an iceberg.

4. Oakland Raiders – Dead owner and the same shitty results.

Maybe a Tebow-like deal with Satan would speed your ascension back to the top of the QB heap.

Playoff Predictions:

NFC playoff participants in seed order – Falcons, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks, Lions and Giants.

AFC playoff participants in seed order – Texans, Patriots, Ravens, Chargers, Steelers and Bills.

NFC Championship – Eagles defeat Lions.

AFC Championship – Texans defeat Ravens.

Super Bowl – Texans defeat Eagles. Wade Phillips wins a Super Bowl ring as a coordinator. Dr. Manhattan appears at the end of the game and, uncertain as to how this could happen, decides to blow up this irrational and often cruel world.

Well I hope you enjoyed that quick review of the upcoming season. If you liked it I’ll be sure to get my 2011 predictions posted soon.

Don’t worry. He’ll make everything ok.

FN 1 – So I did want to do this before the season but was too consumed with stuff and/or things. If this works ok I may turn it into a regular deal. Also, in full disclosure, I’ve tried as best I could to not alter my pre-season thoughts. I don’t think I have too many opinions that have changed after the first two weeks.

FN 2 – This probably merits more detailed discussion at some point in the future, but I think we are seeing that Tom Terrific had a pretty damn good offensive line all these years and I don’t know if Peyton’s was ever that good in Indy. At the end of this season we may have one more mark in the column of Manning in the pretty face versus dumb face quarterback battle of our era.

FN 3 – I think there are only four teams in the league that can win a game relying on just their offense or defense (i.e., each of those units can win them a game if the other unit sucks) – the Ravens, Texans, Giants and until further notice the 49ers. The rest of the teams either need one side of the ball to play well to win (e.g., the Saints offense) of they need something from both sides of the ball.

Let’s Grow a Beard!!!

Posted: 3rd July 2012 by The Draft Party Host in Other Entertainment
Tags: Dakota Fanning, Katie Holmes, Tom Cruise

Only two more and you’ll get to five big guy

Dear Draft Party Patriots,

For once I wanted to do something that was semi-timely and interactive (unlike my aborted but maybe to return question of the week/quarter). As you may have heard, Katie Holmes was rescued from her prison not by true love’s kiss, but by waking up and realizing she traded her “career” to a fucking whack-job just so he could have a baby that was his and she could be on some magazine covers. Now she has served her 5 years and is able to leave with an even smaller version of Tom Cruise and a ~~wheelbarrow~~ 18 wheeler full of money, it is time for Tom to trade in for a younger model. So, here is the game, name Tom Cruise’s next beard!

Long-term dating does not count. Please reply to this article with your selection for Tom Cruise’s next wife. Remember, he likes them young and without a discernible career of their own at the time of marriage, even if they had some earlier success. You’ll probably also want to pick someone who would be star-struck enough by Tom Cruise to be willing to become a Scientologist. And no, you can’t pick John Travolta. Since I write the article, I’ll pick first: Dakota Fanning.

The 5 to 8 Best Things on TV

Posted: 2nd July 2012 by The Draft Party Host in TV
Tags: "Community", Alison Brie, Allie Grant, Ana Gasteyer, Annie Edison, Chris Parnell, Christina Hendricks, Damien Sandown, Daniel Bryan, Dolph Ziggler, Jason Mantzoukas, John Slattery, Mad Men, Max Greenfield, New Girl, Nick Offerman, Parker Young, Parks and Recreation, Rafi, RAW, Ricardo Rodriguez, Roger Sterling, Ron Swanson, Schmidt, SmackDown, Stephen Colbert, Suburgatory, Swanson Pyramid of Greatness, The Colbert Report, The League, The Prime Time Players, Trudy Campbell, WWE

Look at this new award I’m going to start handing out!

There has been a lot of hard ANALysis (giggle) in my last few posts, so I thought I would return to the fluff pieces that really separate my sparsely read blog from all of the other NFL Draft comedy blogs out there. And what better fluffer (FN 1) than an article about the best tings on TV. To celebrate what is currently the best popular art medium (FN 2), I have assembled a list of what I think are the five best people or things on television right now. I didn’t want to do best shows because I wanted this list to be very specific and everyone can find one thing that hate about every show. These people/characters, however, are above reproach. Also this is clearly based on shows I watch. I watch a fair amount of TV, but the list will obviously be lacking to some of you because I don’t watch the shitty show you watch. You will also note that the list includes 8 spots because I was too big of a P to cut it down to five. Anyhoot, the best 5 things on television are:

8. The Heels of the WWE, Raw and SmackDown (principally Daniel Bryan, Dolph Ziggler, Alberto Del Rio, Ricardo Rodriguez, The Prime Time Players, and wrestling Godsend Damien Sandow) – Those of you that know me understand that wrestling is my personal heroin. I was hooked very young and have never been able to fully get it out of my blood. For about the last four years I would tune in for Wrestlemania season, see what was going on, and tune back out in April. But last year something clicked. Yes, that something was the rise of CM Punk (who is a genius), but as Punk has gone from quick-witted outsider to partially hamstrung face of the company (FN 3) I have found myself making wrestling appointment viewing again because of the work of their heels. They’re fairly young, good in the ring, and if you enjoy wrestling in the slightest bit, each one will leave you with a smile on your face at the end of the show.

Yes, we are all welcome.

7. The Shay Family, Suburgatory (Allie Grant, Ana Gasteyer, Chris Parnell, Parker Young) – The “nutty neighbor” is a sitcom trope that is generally not relevant anymore because, like in our real lives, we don’t pay attention to our neighbors and get most of our crazy from our family, co-workers and the mirror. But much like you thought that the “family sitcom” was as funny as “swallowing razorblades” until it was rescued by Modern Family, the Shay family is restoring the image of the nosy, insane neighbor as a piece of Americana we can’t do without. Ana Gasteyer is a consistently funny, professional comedic actress. I would watch Chris Parnell shop for sweaters and laugh my ass off. Parker Young pulled off a rare double this television season by being insanely funny in limited action as the moron, jock son that is worshiped by his parents on Suburgatory and finger-banging dickhole Pete Campbell’s pervy teen crush in driver’s ed class on Mad Men. The real standout, however, is protagonist Tess’ best friend and neighbor Lisa, played by Allie Grant. Her mix of uptight teen awkward and maniacal intensity make for some of the best delivered lines on television. If you are not watching Suburgatory, spend the summer catching up.

Hopefully you like your neighbors extra whacky

6. Schmidt, New Girl (Max Greenfield) – Much like the show he stars on, it took some time for me to realize the gift of Schmidt. I suppose most good sitcoms take some time to work out the kinks, and once the show figured out how to use Greenfield as Schmidt, the show took off. Schmidt is like a great closer for a bullpen. Once a team knows it has that anchor, everyone else in the bullpen can fall into line and start to shine in their given role. Schmidt produced at least one “pause the TV until I stop laughing because I’ll miss the next three lines of dialogue” moment a week. That’s one of the best averages on television.

It didn’t hurt that Schmidt dated Cece for most of the season.

5. Allison Brie, Community and Mad Men (as Annie Edison and Trudy Campbell) – Charming as hell, talent falling out of her ass, and scorching hotness. That about sums up Allison Brie. Her ability to inhabit fully both a 20 year old, insecure grade grubber and 30 year old supportive to a fault wife who you would in no way fuck with is also pretty astounding. (FN 4) So are her boobs. Anyways, watch her shows and enjoy.

…and…uh…she make act words good too (wipes drool from mouth)

4. Ron Fucking Swanson, Parks and Recreation (Nick Offerman) – Sometimes there is a character who is not so much the accurate portrayal of someone who you relate to or know, but the embodiment of an idea or a philosophy that you aspire to. Besides saying at least one thing each week that simultaneously causes me to laugh and be inspired, I can tell you that Ron Swanson is the only fictional hero I have ever had.

If this were in the Bible, I’d read it every day

And, because you need to know it…

3. Rafi, The League (Jason Mantzoukas) – The only other character I know of in television history that has provided as many, or more, laughs per minute of screen time is Ralph Wiggum. Everything he says kills. For me, it has been love since his first show when he said the following:

via YouTube

He taught me about murder boners and how to crap the booze out. For that, I am forever in his debt.

2. Roger Sterling, Mad Men (John Slattery) – We all know that Don Draper is the coolest guy on TV. He got even cooler this year when he was comped drinks in a whorehouse when not partaking. Don’s icy coolness and prick comments drive the show, but what makes the show truly great is the levity brought to the serious situations by Roger Sterling. On the surface, Roger Sterling is the type of person I feel duty-bound to hate – born rich, asshole, endless string of hot ladies to nail, and wasting away most of the gifts he was given by breezing through life. But you can make up for a lot in my eyes by being really fucking funny. And given the dose of awfulness we were dealt by Matthew Weiner this season, we needed Roger’s zingers more than ever. Thankfully Roger crushed it this year and kept Mad Men as the best (and not most depressing) show on television.

You see Joan and Roger had a thing, and a baby, and so totally relevant picture.

1. Stephen Colbert, The Colbert Report (Dr. Stephen T. Colbert, D.F.A.) – To put it simply, Stephen Colbert is the single best fucking thing on television and it is not even close. He does 160 times a year what most people hope to do 22 (or 13) times a year. He’s insightful, a brilliant writer, a genius on his feet, and, unlike Stewart’s (albeit hilarious) preachy dickitude, he makes important points in the silliest way possible and doesn’t make you feel like you’ve been beaten over the head. If I were to make a list of my heroes from the world of arts and entertainment, the list would contain two people: Willie Nelson and Stephen Colbert. God bless you sir. The world need more people like you.

Look who’s honoring you now Stephen

FN 1 – That’s a term for a fluff piece in a written publication, right?

FN 2 – We can discuss this separately if you want, but, as of this moment, movies are kind of in the crapper and I’m not that excited by anything going on in music. TV, on the other hand, is really in the middle of a golden age that I am sure will be crushed soon enough, but let’s enjoy it for now.

FN 3 – I still really like Punk, but he has pulled the wrestling equivalent of a Kings of Leon. He had a great shtick that he had to modify and genericize for the masses. I think this has taken away from his character somewhat, in the way that almost any “face” is at a disadvantage character-wise against a heel, but he is still really great in the ring and I think he set off a change in wrestling that will be difficult to reverse (i.e., seeing guys who actually know how to perform the art of wrestling, including in and out of ring work, being pushed). I also think that once he gets out of his current role of carrying the anti-hero flag for the company his flower will fully blossom again.

FN 4 – Seriously, Trudy Campbell is the only person I can remember whipping Don Draper’s ass into submission about something (coming over for a dinner party) and he actually smiled about it.

The New Value of First Round Picks (The Lack of a Revolution Was Televised)

Posted: 11th June 2012 by The Draft Party Host in NFL Draft
Tags: Cletus Spuckler, Justin Blackmon, Olivia Wilde, Ozzie Newsome, Phil Taylor, Trade Value Chart

Maybe I should have led with something sexier

I know you think I’m being lazy. I haven’t posted in about three weeks and there is all sorts of post-draft analysis/looking forward to the next draft analysis that I have failed to provide. Well I haven’t been lazy, dick. I actually had to do a lot of “research” for this post, and by the time the lab coat and goggles actually get delivered and then I spin this drafty/comedic gold you’ve lost three weeks of your life. But the wait was worth it. There’s nothing that makes the NFL Draft any sexier than the application of the scientific method.

Something has been bothering me since the first night of the draft. Leading up to the draft I heard all sorts of chatter about how the imposition of the rookie wage scale would have several effects on the draft. One – it was expected to cause an increase in trading activity. Two – the (low) cost certainty associated with high first round picks meant that the trade value chart was obsolete. Third – as really a follow-up to point two, the wage scale would make high first round picks more valuable.

Well I can’t argue with point one. The first round featured 11 trades which was a substantial increase from the last few years. In fact, some people at venerable sporting publications looked at the increased trading and concluded it was due to the rookie wage scale. But was the increased trading volume really caused by the rookie wage scale? Did all of this wheeling and dealing, which made for great television, really happen because, as most sports pundits posited, the rookie wage scale made first round draft picks more valuable? Does anyone really give a shit about these questions? (Takes a huff from gasoline rag, plays a game of Freecell, feels better)

If the rookie wage scale made early draft picks more valuable, then it would stand to reason that teams trading up for said first round picks would be willing to give up (i.e., pay) more to get these picks. But how does one measure the value a team traded away to move up or into the first round? If only we had some arbitrary metric that all NFL teams used as a proxy for value and currency when trading draft picks. Wait a minute…(digs in side pocket of cargo shorts, wonders why he has anything in this pocket, pulls out crumpled piece of paper)…ah yes, our old friend the draft value chart.

So no, I haven’t been sitting around tugging it for three weeks (FN 1). I decided to investigate this question by evaluating each trade in the first round of the 2012 draft to determine how many trade value points a team either gained (or lost) by trading up. I then compared those results to the last five years of first round trades to see if teams were “paying” more for first round picks in 2012 than they did in the previous five years (i.e., had first round picks become more valuable because people were paying more for them). (FN 2)

You know...Science

Before we get to the results (SPOILER ALERT: I usually don’t write an article like this if the results turn out how you expect them to), let’s have a look at each of the first round trades in 2012 and see what the gain (or loss) in trade value points was for the team moving up:

Washington gave up the 6th and 39th (second round) picks in the 2012 draft, a 2013 first round pick and a 2014 first round pick for the 2nd pick this year from St. Loius. The Redskins got RG III (QB, Baylor). Rams traded down again and got Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) and then did some more dicking around (outlined below). As discussed in my previous ground-breaking article, I calculated that the Redskins had a 115 point deficit for trading up. (FN 3)

Cleveland gave up the 4th, 118th (4th round), 139th (5th round), and 211th (7th round) picks in the 2012 draft for the 3rd pick this year from Minnesota. Cleveland got Trent Richardson (RB from Alabama). Minnesota got Matt Kalil (OT from USC), Jarius Wright (WR, Arkansas), Robert Blanton (S from Notre Dame), and traded the 211th pick for a 6th round pick in 2013. The Browns had a 298.5 point surplus for trading up. I know. I don’t know how it happened either.

Jacksonville gave up the 7th and 101st (4th round) picks in the 2012 draft for the 5th selection in this year’s draft from Tampa Bay. Jacksonville got Justin Blackmon (WR from Oklahoma State) a the team’s designated driver for the next year. Tampa Bay got Mark Barron (S, Alabama) at the 7th pick and used the 101st pick (combined with their 36th this year) to trade up for Doug Martin (RB, Idaho) (that trade is analyzed below). The Jag(off)s had a 104 point surplus for trading up.

$5 says that is vodka

Dallas gave up 14th and 45th (2nd round) selections in the 2012 draft for the 6th pick this year from St. Louis. The Cowboys got Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU). The Rams got Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) and flipped the 45th pick to Chicago for their 50th (second round) and 150th (5th round) who turned into Isaiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati) and Rokevious Watkins (OG, South Carolina). The Cowboys had a 50 point surplus for trading up.

Philadelphia traded the 15th, 114th (fourth round) and 172nd (6th round) in the 2012 draft for 12th selection this year from Seattle. The Eagles got Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) and maybe an STD. The Seahawks got Bruce Irvin (DE, West Virginia) and his drunk driving skills, Jaye Howard (DE, Florida) and Jeremy Lane (CD, Northwestern State). The Eagles had a 61.4 point surplus for trading up.

Oakland traded the 17th selection in the 2012 draft and a conditional second round pick in 2013 (that becomes a 1st if the Raiders make the AFC Championship Game….fart noise) for Carson Palmer from Cincinnati. Cincinnati got Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama). Since I haven’t had time to figure out a wild ass theory on the trade chart value vis a vis current players, I didn’t do a point analysis for this trade.

New England gave up the 27th and 93rd (third round) picks in this year’s draft for the 21st pick this year from Cincinnati. The Patriots got Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse). The Bengals got Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin) and Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson). New England had an 8 point deficit for trading up.

For this article, I’ve evaluated trades involving future picks in the year that the trade up occurred. So we’ll evaluate the Atlanta and Cleveland trade that landed the Falcons Julio Jones later, but you should just know that the Browns ended up with Brandon Weeden and using one of the Jones picks to trade up for Phil Taylor. I surprised the Browns still have any fans.

Just as sexy as Olivia Wilde

New England gave up the 31st and 126th (4th round) picks in 2012 for 25th pick this year from Denver. The Patriots got Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama). The Broncos traded down again (see below) because they’re just too goddamn talented to use a higher pick I suppose. The Patriots had a 74 point surplus for trading up.

Minnesota gave up the 35th (2nd round) and 98th (4th round) picks in the 2012 draft for the 29th pick in this year’s draft from Baltimore. Minnesota got Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame) and the Ravens got Courtney Upshaw (LB, Alabama) and Gino Gradkowski (G, Delaware). The Vikings had an 18 point deficit for trading up and the Ravens got a better player than Smith at each pick. (FN 4)

Finally, Tampa Bay gave up the 36th (2nd round) and 101st (4th round) picks in the 2012 draft for the 31st and 126th (4th round) picks this year from Denver. Tampa Bay got Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) and then used the 126th for ammunition to trade up for Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska). Denver got Derek Wolfe (DT, Cincinnati) and Omar Bolden (CB, Arizona State). The Buccaneers had a 10 point surplus for trading up and got boner inducing hosses at each pick. Denver flew the flag of its incompetence again this draft. (FN 5)

So let’s see, if I break out my abacus (it is also in my cargo shorts), it tells me that there were 9 trades for which I assigned a surplus or deficit above, and the value of the nine trades for the team trading up were -115, +298.5, +104, +50, +61.4, -8, +74, -18, +10. That means that the average team trading up in the first round of the 2012 draft got a 50.77 point surplus for trading up. If you hold the draft value chart sacrosanct, and you should if you keep a copy in your cargo shorts, it means that teams trading down should have asked for, on average, another late 4th round pick to be included in their trades this year.

These numbers started to rattle my faith a bit. Why the hell do we have the trade value chart if teams trading down regularly don’t get the full chart point value of the pick they are giving up? Alright. Don’t panic Draft Party Host. Maybe this is the way business has always been done. Maybe the chart is just a random set of numbers but are close enough that the teams use it to just get in the right ballpark. Also, more relevant to this article, maybe the point surpluses were even higher in previous years, meaning that teams had started to “pay” more for the more valuable first round picks in 2012.

Seriously, those pockets hold a lot

So I did what any responsible adult with a full time job, a wife, a couple of dogs and other adult obligations would do – ~~I stopped writing a blog combining dick jokes with the NFL Draft~~ I looked at all of the first round trades in the previous five NFL drafts and I did the same point analysis. Much like my review of the 2012 draft, I only did the surplus/deficit analysis for trades involving just draft picks or predominantly draft picks. If it involved several picks and a player, and that player wasn’t a big name talent like Brandon Marshall, I assigned a small value to the player, especially when you can get Brandon Marshall for two third round draft picks. Let’s see what the numbers tell us:

2011 Draft – The Falcons big trade with the Browns was a +108 for the Falcons (that it not what we were led to believe by the pundits – it was painted as self-destructive by the Falcons), and the other three trades had total values for the team trading up of -110, -120, and -100. This means that, based on the four trades in the 2011 draft, the team trading up ran an average 55.5 point deficit. Huh?

2010 Draft – This was the last year before the rookie wage scale was implemented. GM’s must have over-compensated in the 2011 draft because of the rookie wage scale. That’s the only way to explain those deficits, right? For this draft, I didn’t try to come up with a figure for the Cutler trade, but I’ve said before that I’m pretty sure the Bears won that round. The other trades that year had total values for the team trading up of +32, +90.2 (FN 6), +15, +110, +122, -28, -24, -56, and -1.8. So in 2010, before the revolution to first round drafting known as the rookie wage scale, teams trading up had an average 28.82 point surplus.

2009 Draft – The five first round trades in this draft had total values for the team trading up of +270, +60, +61.6 (FN 7), +33.4, and -91. Teams trading up had an average 66.8 point surplus.

2008 Draft – The first round trades for this draft had total values for the team trading up of +166, -180, +14, +25.8, +173, +12, +32.8, -91, -68.2, +31.8 and +12. Teams trading up had an average 11.65 point surplus.

2007 Draft: The first round trades for this draft had total values for the team trading up of +59.2, -22.2, -180, -22.8, and +166. Teams trading up had an average .04 point surplus.

Einstein: "After reading this article, I realize I wasted my life. Imagine how many lives could have been saved if they had a draft value chart for me to analyze before 1945."

If you average out all of the first round trades from 2007 to 2011, and the point surplus/deficit for the team trading up, it means that the team trading up had a 19.51 point surplus. Using the metric that almost all NFL teams use to place value on draft picks so that they can efficiently work out trades, teams trading up in the first round of the 2007 to 2011 drafts actually paid more to trade up than teams did in 2012.

So what do we take away from this, sweet and innocent Draft Party warriors? First, as suspected, most people that write about sports probably don’t know what the fuck they’re talking about. I know that spending my time figuring out something like this will inevitably make some people think I am gay for robots, but Christalmighty, how hard is it to figure something like this out? One of my biggest pet peeves is when I see professional sports writers mind-numbingly write shit like “rookie wage scale make trade happen good for trade” and don’t bother to back it up with any type of rational analysis or thought. I am a freshly minted Internet hundredaire, so maybe I’ll be able to ditch the day job soon and put together Pulitzer level work like this together every day, but until then most of you have to get your sports news from guys who just want a press pass to games, free nachos, no accountability and to be the next Stephen A. Smith. God I hope the Mayans are right.

If it means no more Stephen A. then bring it on.

Second, I am starting to suspect that the trade value chart is worthless and that no GM really cares about “value.” Let’s role play for a minute. No I won’t put on the hockey mask and wrap myself in a garden hose you pervert, this is my fucking hypo. What do you think the Steelers were thinking this year when they were able to get David DeCastro at the 24th pick? Here are your choices: (A) “Wow, I guess we’ll take David DeCastro here because he represents a need we have and is an excellent pick, but only when taken here,” or (B) “Holy Fucking Cow Shit in Heaven! We love this guy! He’s a bad ass mother fucker and he is going to maul fat shits on defensive lines in this league for a decade!”

Next question. What do you think Jerry Jones’ thought process was behind getting Morris Claiborne? Think about it: (A) “I covet that fast little bastard more than my own children, but don’t you dare overpay for him!”, or (B) “Steven! If you don’t come home tonight with Morris Claiborne I’m sending you to the fucking orphanage for real this time where you will get trucked until you get a new mommy and daddy! GET HIM NOW!”

I suppose the point is that the trade value chart is a very rough guide (like your mom in a national park), but all draft trades really come down to what you are willing to pay when you covet a guy. Teams are trading for players and not points. But the really funny thing is that apparently teams don’t have to overpay for the guys they want. In fact, they regularly get more “value”, if that means anything, by trading up. Almost all the time.

That was fun wasn’t it? I hope you learned something. I hope you have a little bit better idea of what happens next time your team makes a draft day trade. I hope you have a bit more skepticism the next time you read a sports journalist making an assertion that seems to have no basis. Mostly I just hope you realize that you have something better to do with your time than me. See you soon.

Saved from the orphanage for one more year

FN 1 – Don’t worry – I did plenty of tugging it the last two weeks.

FN 2 – I know the trade value chart is a flawed indicator of a draft pick’s value generally, however, it is the common currency used for draft picks in the last 20 years. So suck it.

FN 3 – A note here about methodology. I calculated in the RG III article that the trade chart value of a first round pick in the following season was maybe 455 trade value points. I know that analysis was not the most scientific of all time, but I don’t think it’s far off. I decided to go with a “conventional wisdom” valuation and assigned future first round picks used to trade up as a value of 420 points (the 16th pick in the second round) (e.g., trading away a 2013 first round pick this year would be valued at trading a middling 2nd round pick in the 2012 draft).

FN 4 – Is anyone else surprised that in this rash of team’s trading up and getting a surplus of trade value points, one of the few guys to trade down and get extra trade value points would be Ozzie Newsome? That guy is Professor X in a league of Cletus Spuckler’s.

FN 5 – I know I stated previously that the Bucs had one of my three favorite drafts, but in writing this article I think I previously under-sold what they did. I’m moving them up to the second best draft. The Eagles still face fucked everyone else.

FN 6 – In fairness, you need to subtract the value of Tim Dobbins from this 90.2 point surplus, but I think we can all agree that we don’t assign much trade chart point value to Tim Dobbins. For God’s sake, the Dolphins got him in a trade and released him one year later. If you’re reading this Tim, and I know you are, sorry.

FN 7 – The first three trades in the 2009 draft were all the Browns trading down. They passed on Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman and Jeremy Maclin. In return for passing on each one of these guys they got Alex Mack, a second pick, a couple of sixths and some spare part players. What the fuck is that all about? I’m happy to make some cyanide fruit punch for any Browns fans who want forget the torture their team regularly puts them through.

The Worst Things Since the Triangle Shirtwaist Factory Fire (or teams whose final drafts before the Mayan Apocalypse I didn’t like)

Posted: 20th May 2012 by The Draft Party Host in NFL Draft
Tags: Adrian Peterson, Andre Branch, Bobby Wagner, Brandon Weeden, Bruce Irvin, Bryan Anger, Carson Palmer, Chandler Jones, Cleveland Browns, Colt McCoy, Jacksonville Jaguars, John Hughes, Jonathan Martin, Joseph Barksdale, Justin Blackmon, Matt Cassell, Matt Flynn, Melvin Ingram, Mike Holmgren, Mitchell Schwartz, Quinton Couples, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Seattle Seahawks, Shea McClellin, Taiwan Jones, Tavaris Jackson, Terelle Pryor, Trent Richardson

Is that the Browns 2012 draft lying there?

Last week I told you about the drafts that I liked and now it is time to tell you about the drafts that I thought were giant piles of turd. No, smarty, it didn’t take me an entire week to figure out all of the drafts I didn’t like. That was easy. I was busy last week preparing for a trip to New Orleans that soaked up most of my time. On a completely unrelated note, if you ever wondered what I look like, apparently I look like a guy who should be approached by prostitutes on Bourbon Street. Maybe I’ll tell you more about that later. Let’s stay on topic. Drafts I hated: (FN 1)

1. Seattle Seahawks – (Key Picks – Bruce Irvin, DE, West Virginia; Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State; Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin): Last year in my post-draft round-up I gave the Seahawks the benefit of the doubt because I thought they would be using one of their puzzling picks (probably James Carpenter) to trade for Kevin Kolb. They didn’t and now that draft looks a lot crappier because they reached for just about every guy (including Carpenter, who most people had listed as a second round pick) and didn’t use any of those picks for last year’s Matt Flynn. So this year’s #1 spot on my shit list goes to the Seahawks as a continuation from last year’s terrible draft.

The Seahawks needed a defensive end, and Bruce Irvin is a physical marvel, but he is also a basket case. Quinton Couples, Melvin Ingram, Shea McClellin and Chandler Jones were all sitting on the board, without arrests the day after their pro days, waiting to be dropped into the Great Northwest to just worry about rushing the quarterback. I’m guessing that ultimate cheerleader Pete Carroll thinks he can take any troubled kid and make him productive on the football field. The problem is that when he was at USC he had 20 scholarships a year. He could afford to give 5 or 6 to troubled kids because only one or two of them had to be worth a damn to help him out. Good luck Pete. This is the type of pick that will have you working as a guest studio host on College Game Day in a couple of years.

Maybe Bobby Wagner will turn out to be ok. Who cares? What I do care about is wasting a third round pick on a 5’11″ quarterback with durability issues and an average arm just a month after signing Matt Flynn to a sizable free agent contract. This team made Tavaris Jackson into a not completely laughable quarterback. You don’t need to turn water into wine every year Pete. Wilson has lots of intangibles and is the rare African American lunchpail/gym rat/”leaves it all out on the field” guy. (FN 2) Wilson is also the type of guy that is everyone’s favorite backup quarterback because he has no discernible talent but supposedly has a lot of “leadership” traits. Vomitfart. It’s one thing to waste a third round pick, it is a completely different thing to use that third round pick to start what will probably be a multi-year quarterback controversy. Peyton Manning was right to avoid this disaster.

Pete Carroll illustrating how far he needs to go before he is considered a competent coach.

2. Cleveland Browns (Key Picks – Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama; Brandon Weeden, QB, Oklahoma State; Mitchell Schwartz, OT, Cal; John Hughes, DT, Cincinnati): On the one hand, the Browns need impact players on the offensive side of the ball, and outside of Luck and RGIII, Richardson is probably the best thing in this draft. On the other hand, Jesus Christ what the fuck are these guys doing? You don’t trade up one spot from 4th overall to 3rd to draft a running back. Period. You know, I know, everyone on the fucking planet knows you can find a running back later than the third pick in the draft. Hell, even if the Browns thought that Richardson was going to be better than Adrian Peterson (FN 3), what do they plan on doing with him? Outside of their left tackle, they don’t have a very good offensive line. Their quarterback play last year probably made Chiefs fans happy to have Matt Cassell. Their wide receivers will likely be working in the food service industry in the very near future. This poor bastard has to move to Cleveland and run into a brick wall for the next year, probably two or three. This is one of the few times I actually don’t envy a professional athlete.

The Browns followed this by drafting Brandon Weeden. Note to Cleveland fans – Brandon Weeden minus three years of age and plus two years of NFL experience is already on your roster. His name is Colt McCoy. They both played in a spread system and put up “versus the computer” passing stats because they had talent all over the field and could make easy throws to open guys. Weeden has a better arm, but Colt is more accurate. In short, the Browns had the 22nd pick in the draft and did not use it to significantly better their team. Nice.

I don’t need to evaluate Mitchell Schwartz (I hear his Schwartz is not as big as mine) and John Hughes (I thought he had died) to want to hate fuck this draft. This team had to get some playmakers, but it also has more needs than a bulimic former child actor who was molested by a family member. They had their chance to trade up for RGIII and they blew it. You don’t make up for that letdown by using extra picks to get a running back and then drafting an older replica of your current quarterback. Why not trade down? Teams were able to trade out of the 5th and 6th picks. Did no one really want the 4th pick? This just sucked. It really, really sucked.

Mike Holmgren discussing how he also wanted to draft LeBron, Craig Counsell and Art Modell.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (Key Picks – Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State; Andre Branch, DE, Clemson; Bryan Anger, P, Cal): Trading up for Blackmon wasn’t the worst, and Andre Branch was a fine pick. BUT, I don’t care if your first round pick is Lawrence Taylor and your second round pick is Joe Montana, if you draft a fucking punter in the first three rounds your draft is a failure. End of Story.

“Draft Party Host…”, you may be asking, “are there other drafts that you thought sucked?” Why yes my dear friend, there are. These drafts receive an honorable mention for suckitude:

St. Louis Rams – I know you really wanted Justin Blackmon, but unlike the fucking Browns, the Rams have some pieces that work and they didn’t need to trade down a thousand times to stockpile picks. They have lots of extra picks in upcoming years, so why not keep your high picks and take players that will make a bigger impact? I found their work to be a bit too cute and Jeff Fisher’s first attempt to make himself look like a Draft guru by trading around a lot when he should just appreciate the dumb fucking luck the Redskins allowed him to walk into. It is going to be fun watching him mismanage this.

Dallas Cowboys – I’ll probably discuss this in further detail later, but this was just another year that showed these guys don’t get it.

Miami Dolphins – Jonathan Martin was an excellent pick-up in the second round, but as I’m sure you know at this point, I think Ryan Tannehill sucks a ginormous dick and will put a whale sized hole in the hull of this franshise for years.

Oakland Raiders – In case you weren’t keeping score at home, if you account for their trades their first round pick was Carson Palmer, their second round picks were Joseph Barksdale (he did nothing last year) and Taiwan Jones (he ran for 73 yards last year), and they used their third round pick on Terelle Pryor. Their draft sucked.

I can't believe the mustache let this happen on his watch.

FN 1 – Again, like the drafts I hated, I only judged teams on their high round draft choices as I don’t blame them for “reaching” in the 6th round.

FN 2 – By the way, Matt Flynn already is that type of guy.

FN 3 – First, he won’t be better than Peterson. Second, Adrian Peterson is a Judas fuck.

The Best Drafts in the History of the NFL (or teams whose drafts I liked in 2012)

Posted: 7th May 2012 by The Draft Party Host in NFL Draft
Tags: Alameda Ta'amu, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, David DeCastro, Doug Martin, Fletcher Cox, Lavonte Davie, Mark Barron, Marvin McNutt, Mike Adams, Mychal Kendricks, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Sean Spence, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Victor Cruz, Vinny Curry

I know this means a lot to everyone on this list

Sorry Draft Party Blog fans. This article has been several days coming, but after I woke up from my three day beer and Popeye’s coma I actually had to work. That was for sucks. But the time off has allowed me to properly gather my thoughts and figure out whose drafts I really liked in what will likely be the final NFL Draft ever. (FN 1)

It’s a good thing I took this week off to think about the draft, because while I was watching the first round I spent most of the time thinking, “What the fuck are those guys doing? I’m glad I’m not a fan of team [________] because I would probably [_____] in an old lady’s [________] or stick a [_______] in my [_______].” Then I would look around those gathered at the Draft Party and see the draft anguish they had been dealt and I felt much better.

A little time off has actually made me come around to see several teams do things I like. Again, much like my analysis of last year’s draft, I’m not going to bother telling you that Marvin McNutt’s tricky route running and competitiveness could make him the next Victor Cruz, so he’s a steal for the Eagles in the 6th round because (1) I have no idea if that is true, and (2) no one else does either. If any GM was certain that some dude was the next Victor Cruz he would have been taken in the first round. As such, I treat any “stars” coming out of rounds 4 through 7 as either blind, stinking luck or an incredible mix of talent unseen by all 32 teams combined with a unique opportunity (e.g., Victor Cruz).

"You know, a couple of years ago I totally had Victor Cruz as one of those late round, could maybe one day set the Giants' single season receiving yards record type of guy. Nailed it!"

With that backdrop in mind, let’s have a look at the drafts that I really liked in 2012:

1. Philadelphia Eagles (Key Picks – Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State; Mychal Kendricks, LB, Cal; Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall): I received this text from devoted Draft Party Blog reader I’m an Asshole at 1:38 pm on Saturday, April 28th: “The Eagles are dominating this draft.” Well said sir. The Eagles top need was at linebacker where they got the speedy, intense tackling machine Mychal Kendricks. Then they did what a team without a ton of needs can do – draft to a position of strength to create a dominant unit.

The Eagles had 50 sacks in 2011, with 29 coming from their starting defensive ends. This is no longer the blitz crazy unit lead by Jim Johnson that relied on depth at the corner position and a series of balls out blitzes. This is a team, much like the Giants, that has started building a remarkable line that was made even better by getting the best inside presence in the draft (Fletcher Cox) and a guy who is quick and tough on the outside (Vinny Curry). Also note that a lot of people had Curry going early in the second round, but the Eagles were able to trade back, get an extra fourth round pick, and still get a potential difference maker.

If the Eagles can get even half their shit together on offense (where they have arguably the best set of skill position players in the game and a young-ish line that should improve) and this team will be very difficult to beat because they will put up points and then be able to effectively get to the quarterback with their four down lineman while dropping seven against teams that have to throw to catch up. I hate the fucking Eagles.

This guy is totally going to stuff the gaping hole in the middle of the Eagles defense.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (Key Picks – David DeCastro, G, Stanford; Mike Adams, T, Ohio State; Sean Spence, LB, Miami; Alameda Ta’amu, NT, Washington): For those of you who think the Steelers are all about pounding the ball and letting their defense kill the other quarterback, you have not been paying attention. This team throws the ball. In fact, they had a pass play percentage of 57.8% in 2011, 52.3% in 2010, 57.8% in 2009 and 54% in 2008. (FN 2) Combined with their porous offensive line this has led Ben Roethlisberger to be abused like some sort of, oh, I don’t know, small woman cornered in a bathroom against her will with a large professional athlete while a bunch of cops waited outside to keep her friends out. I’m just sayin’ that their offensive line, and helmet-less riding of motorcycles, has led to Roethlisberger being hit a lot more than a star quarterback should be.

So what did those fucking guys do? They stayed put and got, arguably, the most can’t miss guy in the draft to be their starting guard for the next decade. David DeCastro is going to make a nice addition to help anchor the middle of the line with Maurkice Pouncey. Then they got a guy with first round talent at the 56th pick in Mike Adams. I know that Adams comes with some baggage, but this is a team that has a “family” reputation, all the while getting the best out of rapists, a gun brandishing idiot, and a domestic abuse loving pot head. I think they’ll be able to work with a guy who has worlds of talent and just failed one piss test.

I know that the Steelers defense is aging rapidly and that side of the ball needed some help. Well, Sean Spence seems like the type of guy that will get plugged in on that defense and become a stud. He’s undersized and overlooked, but mean and instinctive. Then in the fourth round the Steelers may have found undervalued talent matching a unique opportunity by drafting Alameda Ta’amu. He may have trouble keeping his weight in check, but he has the chance to learn behind a Pro Bowler and if he is going to succeed anywhere, it will be in Shitsburgh. The Steelers defense may still need work, but they made their biggest weakness much stronger in this draft and they still have a capable defense. I hate the fucking Steelers.

"So Mike, do you think you could do something like this with a bathroom door behind you? Yes? You're going to be awesome at this job."

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Key Picks – Mark Barron, S, Alabama; Doug Martin, RB, Boise State; Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska): In my incredibly accurate mock draft, I thought that the Bucs would trade up to get Trent Richardson, an impact player, to make a legitimate run at winning the NFC South this year. That couldn’t have been far off, because someone had to have spooked the Browns into trading up one spot. But even with that miss, Tampa Bay got better and probably landed three impact players. They were able to trade down and get one of the other “can’t miss” guys in the draft in Mark Barron. They then traded up into the end of the first round to get the consensus second best running back in the draft (who they’ll be able to pair with LeGarrette Blount, thus getting utility out of both guys instead of burying Blount by taking Richardson). Then in the second round they may have finally filled the Derek Brooks sized hole in their defense with Lavonte David. The Buccaneers came into the draft without a lot of needs, missed out on a potential home run pick, and they still managed to upgrade themselves considerably. I have no strong feelings one way or the other about the Buccaneers, but I liked their draft.

I make it a habit to only list three teams in my “best of” list (FN 3), but there are some teams that I felt deserved some honorable mention:

New England Patriots – As I politely requested in my mock draft, Belicheck finally traded up! But I wasn’t that thrilled about the picks. I don’t believe that much in Chandler, but Hightower will be good for them.

Cincinnati Bengals – They needed a corner and an interior lineman and got both while pulling off the rare Cincinnati Draft-day trade back. Well done.

Buffalo Bills – They hung in their spot, took the actual best player available and ended up with Stephon Gilmore and Cordy Glenn, who may turn out to be two of the best fifteen players in this draft. Remember a few years ago when it looked like the Bills couldn’t draft a winning fantasy team if it had the first six picks in a 16 team league? Something good is coming together in Buffalo.

Baltimore Ravens – Ozzie traded back, got the extra picks he needed for the multiple holes on this roster and still got the dudes he wanted. That guy is a fucking ninja.

Chicago Bears – I didn’t really love what they actually did on draft day, but did anyone else get a 28 year old three time Pro Bowl wide receiver in the third round? No? Well, the Bears did, so everyone else selecting in the third round can suck it.

"Thanks for being so crazy we could get you for a third round pick! Let's celebrate by touching butts!"

FN 1 – Seriously, I think the Mayans were on to something. In 2012 we had my birthday on a Friday, St. Patrick’s Day on a Saturday and the first Saturday of May combined the Kentucky Derby (of course), Cinco de Mayo and the Supermoon. In addition, December 21st, the last day of life as we know it, is on a Friday. We all know that the best time to fire people is on a Friday, so what incredible luck is it that the entire world will be “fired” on a Friday. It’s all coming together too well.

FN 2 – By way of comparison, a team like the Packers, who everyone considers pass happy, has pass play percentages of 60.6%, 57.6%, 58.7% and 56.8% in the same years. Different, but not wildly different.

FN 3 – This is only the second year I’ve done this.

Reppin’ SOUTHEAST’s Redskins Mock Draft (with Special Guest Reppin’ SOUTHEAST)

Posted: 27th April 2012 by The Draft Party Host in NFL Draft
Tags: Reppin' SOUTHEAST, Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

This is last year's brew from Reppin' SOUTHEAST. It tasted like awesome.

I have mistreated a loyal reader and contributor to this blog. While drinking my first beer at the Draft Party location last night I tried to get this post up, but it couldn’t happen. But alas, there is some valuable information in this post and, I think, some real insight into what is going on with the Redskins. Without further ado, Reppin’ SOUTHEAST’s Redskins focused mock draft:

I have a startling confession to make, and I’m ready for the world to know it. Unfortunately, my only public outlets are this blog, with its well known limited audience, and my twitter feed, where my only followers are spambots.

Here goes anyway: I didn’t pay any attention to the NFL draft until last year, and that was only because DPH invited me to the party. I grew up in Western Massachusetts (this is a large area because, as Tommy from Quinzee will tell you, anything past Framingham is Western Mass), and the only possible college team to root for was UMass. [fn1] My dad went to Temple, which has only had a semi-resurgence in football. [fn2] I went to GW which hasn’t had a college football team in at least 50 years. All of this is my whiny justification for why I don’t really follow college football, and thus, why the draft has historically been a bunch of unknown-to-me large men wearing ugly suits with a lot of buttons (although not as many as in the NBA draft, I must concede.)

This year, I sez to myself, “Self, you predictably didn’t watch enough college football this year to have intelligent conversations about any picks beyond the first two, but you’re going to do some research so you don’t embarrass yourself in front of your little friends.” [fn3]

But, of course, I didn’t. In fact, the only things I’ve read this year are the posts directly below mine on this here website. I had to skim a lot of the entries because my virgin eyes can’t take all the dick jokes. So that being said, here is my Redskins 2012 Mock Draft:

1st Round, 2nd Overall: RGIII, duh. I’m really excited about this pick for reasons deftly explained on this blog. I’m also excited about this pick because he seems like a good guy and isn’t fazed at all by seeing his likeness in a horrifying meat sculpture.

This is an exciting look for Redskins fans.

3rd Round, 69th Overall: Hehe, 69. I dunno, hopefully a tackle.

4th Round, 102nd Overall: Um, not sure. I have no idea who will be around at this point, and I’ll probably too drunk on Draft Party Brew 2: The Deuce [fn4] to pay attention. Maybe someone who plays defense?

4th Round, 109th Overall: How’d they get another pick so quickly? What’s happening? Since they just took a defensive player, maybe someone who plays offense. They already have a QB, so, hmm. Are all the good WRs gone? Do they even need another one? Damn my lack of research/knowledge!

Dan Snyder will then trade the rest of his picks for a Subway meat sculpture of himself.

Hope you learned something!

That looks a little like Dan Snyder, right?

[fn1] To their credit, they did win the I-AA championship recently, I think. But who cares, amiright?

[fn2] I watched them lose to UCLA in the inaugural Eagle Bank Bowl at RFK stadium. It was incredibly cold, and RFK sucks. But besides that, who can complain?

[fn3] I never realized before writing it down how condescending I am to myself.

[fn4] A delicious rye pale ale this year. I barely put any peepee in it!

Draft Party Blog Ill-Informed Mock Draft (2012/End of the World Edition)

Posted: 26th April 2012 by The Draft Party Host in NFL Draft
Tags: Andrew Luck, Chandler Jones, Coby Fleener, Cordy Glenn, Courtney Upshaw, Dan Snyder, David DeCastro, Dont'a Hightower, Dontari Poe, Dre Kirkpatrick, Fletcher Cox, Jerel Worthy, Jonathan Martin, Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, Kevin Zeitler, LeGarrette Blount, Luke Keuchly, Mark Barron, Matt Kalil, Melvin Ingram, Michael Brockers, Michael Floyd, Mike Shanahan, Morris Claiborne, Nick Perry, Peter Konz, Quinton Couples, Riley Reiff, Robert Griffin III, Rueben Randle, Ryan Tannehill, Scarlett Johansson, Shahid Khan, Shea McClellin, Stephen Hill, Stephon Gilmore, Trent Richardson, Whitney Mercilis

You'll need more than "Luck" to get back to the top Colts fans (crosses "Make Andrew Luck to the Colts Pun" off bucket list).

Since I recently took some precious space on this blog to shit on the mock drafts put together by the big boys, I thought I would return the favor and put together my own mock draft for them to shit on. Seriously, Kiper reads this blog every day. He loves dick jokes.

Anyhoot, like last year I have provided a full first round mock draft. Also like last year, I have tried my best to predict trades. We all know because of my crack journalism that most prognosticators don’t get that many first round selections correct so I believe it is my duty as a blogger to whip it out and make predictions I should have no business making because if I happen to be right on a third of this shit I might be hailed as a genius. With that in mind, please enjoy and let me know what you think:

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford – I’m pretty sure I’ll be one for one on mock drafting after this pick. Everyone on the planet has known that Luck would be the top pick in the 2012 NFL Draft since February of 2011. (Pats self on back)

2. Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor – Again, I’m not really rolling the dice with this selection. If you’d like to find out why I think the Redskins’ trade to get RGIII is a good one, please click here. My only hope with this selection is that Mike Shanahan is so fucking crazy that he really wanted Ryan Tannehill all along and as soon as the pick is announced cameras cut to the Redskins’ war room where Dan Snyder rips off his jacket and shirt NWO-style to reveal a Tannehill jersey (FN 1). Tannehill on the Redskins would be a fantastic unification of my hatreds, simultaneously insuring that the Redskins would suck for several years and that Tannehill would be sent to chafe under that asshole in football purgatory. I suppose a boy can dream.

All I'm saying is think about it Shanahan. He sure looks like a winner that has never, ever, had sex with a sheep.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade their 5th overall selection and the 36th overall selection (2nd round) to the Minnesota Vikings for their 3rd overall selection: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama – If my mock draft is to violently unravel, it will probably start here. Minnesota needs help in the secondary and at wide receiver, and Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon are just sitting there staring at Leslie Frazier with their doe eyes. How can he take it? The Vikings could also use a franchise left tackle like Matt Kalil. The beauty of this trade is that it allows Minnesota to pick up an extra early pick (because they need lots of help) and it still allows them to get one of these three guys for sure.

For the Buccaneers, this is a solid, calculated gamble. This team has made LeGarrette Blount look like a productive back, so imagine what they could do with a complete back that doesn’t have a penchant for violent outbursts. Although I do not believe in any way that Richardson will be as good as Adrian “Judas” Peterson, he is a player that could put the Bucs over the top in the division.

Do you think I’m huffing gas again with that last statement? Remember, the Bucs are only a year removed from a 10 win season and will need some offensive firepower in a division with the Saints, Falcons and Panthers. I know you’re thinking, “wow, what a tough division”, but allow me to ask the hard hitting question: is it? Who knows what will happen with the Saints this year with the circus surrounding them and their seeming refusal to quickly sign the one guy that could get that ship in order (Drew Brees). As for the Falcons, in your heart of hearts, do you really believe in those guys? They made the ballsy draft day trade a year ago and all it got for them was 10 wins and a first round trucking by the Giants. I’m not sure that unit has the stomach for the fight. The Panthers look like a future force to be reckoned with, but they are missing more parts than the Bucs and are probably another year away. If the Buccaneers want to step up and win this division, this is probably their best chance. Richardson gets them a lot closer to this goal than waiting at five and getting Matt Kalil or Luke Kuechly.

Another scenario is that some poor schmuck, like Miami, trades up and picks Ryan Tannehill. If you believe the Browns want to continue their downward spiral into NFL irrelevance by drafting Tannehill, you know you need to trade up to this spot to get him. But Miami would have to unload more than the Bucs and I think they’ll get comfortable that Tannehill will be available at eight. My friendly advice to any other teams interested in trading up to get Tannehill – avoid that trade like a rat with a hypodermic needle in its mouth.

4. Buffalo Bills trade their 10th overall selection, their 2013 first round pick and a bottle of cyanide pills (FN 2) to the Cleveland Browns for their 4th overall selection: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State – This is another example of a team who had a great offseason continuing to stockpile weapons in order to make a playoff push. The Bills don’t really have any major issues on either side of the ball, so they are another team that can afford to trade up and get an impact player now. I’ve seen a lot of talk about the Bills needing a left tackle, but there isn’t a left tackle at ten that you can expect to play at that position in 2012. Matt Kalil will be gone and Riley Reiff is going to have to start on the right side. That does not make this team, one that wants to compete with the Patriots right now, any better this year. Also, I was shocked to find out the following: “Buffalo last year led the league in fewest sacks allowed with 23 and its average of 4.9 yards per carry the Bills’ best since 1975 when O.J. Simpson was in the lineup.” So the line is not as big of a concern as you would think. Also, there is no guarantee that Michael Floyd will be available at ten and even if he is, he’s not as good as Blackmon. Therefore, I think the Bills get Blackmon, the best receiver in the draft, to pair with Stevie Johnson and try to make their high-powered offense ridiculous, thus allowing their freshly minted bad-ass defensive line to be even better knowing that teams will have to throw a lot to keep up with the points the Bills’ offense is scoring.

For the Browns, the cyanide pills will help them get over the pain of losing Richardson. They also need help at basically every position except left tackle and the secondary so this trade nets them extra picks to fill their various needs after losing out on their true love Trent Richardson. The alternative is either (A) drafting Morris Claiborne and pairing him with Joe Haden to create a pair of lockdown corners that frees up the front seven to blitz at will, or (2) drafting Matt Kalil to form potentially the best pair of tackles in football with Joe Thomas. Both of those options have some appeal but the Browns are not in a position to draft like the Giants or Eagles sometimes do (i.e., drafting to a position that is already strong to make an elite unit because the rest of the team is at least “good”) because the rest of their team sucks. I have a feeling this team is trying to build up as much as it can in what will probably be another disastrous year so that the quarterback they select next year (Matt Barkley anyone?) will have some talent around him.

5. Minnesota Vikings (via trade with Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU – Well that worked out nicely, didn’t it Minnesota fans? Your team wanted Claiborne at three and a series of trades bailed you out so that you got your preferred pick while still stockpiling extra selections. This is not the type of karma I would expect for a team that literally sold its soul by signing Brett Favre a few years ago.

There has been a lot of speculation about that the Vikings will do with their pick at three, but someone in the organization should wake up and realize that a stud left tackle is more valuable, and less easy to find or cover up for, than a corner. You can cover bad corner play with an outstanding defensive line or playing a lot of zone. If your left tackle sucks you might as well trade your quarterback in for a life-sized Jay Cutler piñata. (FN 2).

I hope you like Cleveland buddy. It's just like USC, but with less talent and more blight.

6. St. Louis Rams: Matt Kalil, OT, USC – I’ve seen a lot of chatter about Fletcher Cox going to the Rams at this pick (FN 4), which makes sense because the interior of the Rams D-line is crap and they could put together an elite unit with a guy (who) like(s) Cox. But if the Rams want to know exactly what they have in Sam Bradford, they have to give Mr. Fetal Alcohol Syndrome someone to throw to and someone to protect him. Their defense is promising and has talent. Their receiving corps really misses Danny Amendola (a sentence that should never have been written in the history of mankind). The offensive line gave up 55 sacks last year and that can’t help Bradford’s already fragile shoulder and mental inability to grasp abstract concepts. With Blackmon gone, the Rams should use the pick on Kalil, who they probably would have drafted at two if they hadn’t traded with the Redskins, and then get a poor man’s Justin Blackmon for Mr. Crazy Eyes early in the second round. I’d say that if the draft plays out like this for the Rams they should be considered the luckiest bastards on Earth. I can’t wait to see how Jeff Fisher will turn all of this good fortune into a string of 8-8′s.

Also, if there is not a trade for Tannehill at three, then this is the next logical place for someone to trade up to get him. This would happen because either (1) the Dolphins think Jacksonville will take Tannehill and perform an operation to physically combine him with Blaine Gabbert to make one subpar professional quarterback, or (2) the Dolphins think the Bills, Chiefs or Seahawks will move up to take him because each team wants to create a suicide epidemic amongst their local fan base.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame – I don’t think this is a pick most other mocks are predicting, but I’d say after the second pick there are about two other predictions I feel confident about in the rest of the first round. I’ve seen some people (like Mel) predicting a trade up by someone to get Fletcher Cox at this spot, but a team who might want to do that (e.g., the Eagles) would have to give up something like a second and fifth rounder this year, or a first next year, to move up this far and if Cox glides in past the Rams at six, the Eagles can probably look at the board and feel good that they’ll either grab ahold of Cox or Michael Brockers at fifteen. Interest in Mark Barron also seems to be peaking for several teams, but I don’t see anyone who really needs a safety (e.g., the Eagles or Cowboys) giving up enough to move up to number seven to get him. Therefore, I think Jacksonville is stuck with the pick.

Here’s my case for the Jags drafting Floyd: Jacksonville needs a wide receiver and they have a new owner with an awesome mustache and he probably wants to do something sexier than drafting a defensive end (e.g., Melvin Ingram) or a corner (e.g., Stephon Gilmore, the consensus pick I’m seeing in mocks) or trading down (which I don’t think they’ll be able to do anyways). He’ll probably say something in a pre-draft meeting like, “Hey, I didn’t show up in America with $50 in my pocket and turn it into $2.5 billion so I could buy a football team and watch you draft another fucking defensive end that probably won’t be any good. Touchdowns make chicks want to take a mustache ride and do coke on my yacht. I also need someone to party with, so take Michael Floyd.” More realistically, the Jags need to do something to help out their terrible offense. They also have a terrible history of drafting defensive linemen. Or just a terrible history of drafting period. Mustache joke.

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M Sheepfuckers – This is one of the two post number two selections I am confident about. It may not happen at eight, but there has been way too much discussion about Tannehill going to Miami for me not to believe it will happen. The Dolphins will regret it for years. (FN 5)

Based only on the mustache, I believe this is a recent photo of Shahid Khan.

9. Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State – The Panthers need a wide receiver to give Cam Newton another weapon and to eventually fill the void that will be left when Steve Smith becomes human and ages, so this could be a place for Michael Floyd if he is not taken by the Jaguars as I guaranteed earlier (fart noise). Cox, however, can be brought in to plug a gaping hole (for the Panthers on the defensive line you sick bastard) and is a great value at this spot. Also, you have to think Ron Rivera is going to be more concerned with creating a dominant defensive line when he already has one stud receiver and a potentially devastating run game in place.

10. Philadelphia Eagles trade the 15th overall selection and the 46th overall selection (2nd round) to the Cleveland Browns for the 10th overall selection acquired via an earlier trade with Buffalo Bills: Mark Barron, SS, Alabama – The Eagles need a safety who makes big plays, can help in run support and can be the replacement for Brian Dawkins the organization has been trying to find for years. Barron fits each one of those needs. The Eagles know they have to get in front of the Cowboys to get Barron and this is probably their best trading partner. The Browns, already crushed from losing out on Trent Richardson, now just resign themselves to stockpiling other draft picks in hopes of finding any marginal talent upgrades and killing the clock on the 2012 season so they can take a quarterback in 2013. Being a Browns fan must be awesome.

11. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Keuchly, ILB, Boston College –Inside linebacker is a need for the Chiefs (as is nose tackle and just about anywhere on the offensive line), but Keuchly seems to be regarded as the most “can’t miss” prospect in this draft. The problem is he plays a very un-sexy position. The alternatives for the Chiefs are (1) getting Dontari Poe to play the nose, which is not a sure thing, or (2) taking Riley Reiff and really hoping that he can step in at left tackle immediately. The Chiefs need a more sure thing at eleven and Keuchly represents that.

12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina – The Seahawks are quietly putting together something pretty good up in the Northwest and I think Peyton Manning made a mistake not giving Seattle a closer look. Ingram would represent an excellent value at this point and it would make Seattle’s already good defensive line even better. If Ingram is gone when the Seahawks pick (which most mocks predict), then I think they take Chandler Jones (a guy who most mock drafts have the Seahawks selecting, but F those other mock drafts).

I'm curious why big 'ol Cox is smiling here.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa – Unlike with Buffalo, the Fartinals taking Riley Reiff probably makes them better this year while he plays right tackle (because their line sucks in general) and in the future when he moves over to the left side (because Levi Brown sucks specifically). I could also see them shooting the wheels off the draft and reaching for Courtney Upshaw or Whitney Mercilus because they need more out of their outside pass rush, but let’s pretend for a moment that the Cardinals make good personnel choices.

14. Dallas Cowboys: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford – I have probably constructed my entire mock draft as a wish fulfillment exercise, because this is the one guy that I really want the Cowboys to get who could possibly be available. I also wouldn’t cry if we took Dontari Poe, but he does present some risk. DeCastro, on the other hand, seems to be mentioned with Keuchly as one of the “can’t miss” guys of the draft. Which is good, because we have learned over the years that the Cowboys are fully capable of missing with high draft picks. Putting DeCastro next to Doug Free probably makes Free better and solidifies the right side of the line for the next five to eight years. In fact, the line should be awesome just in time for Tony Romo to start going downhill in a couple of years.

The mock draftosphere will grade this as a crushing defeat for the Cowboys since they didn’t get Mark Barron because “their secondary was awful.” Agreed. However, I still believe that most of the problems with the Cowboys’ defense stem from their inability to generate a pass rush of any kind with their defensive line. A secondary of Deion Sanders, Champ Bailey, Ed Reed and Rod Woodson would look like shit if it had to cover receivers for 8 seconds on every play. As someone who watches the Cowboys with a keen interest, I am certain that their biggest need is on the defensive line and not in the secondary. How can the Cowboys’ defensive line be helped the most? They can either draft Poe, stick him in the middle and let Jay Ratliff move back to defensive end (I would be perfectly happy with this) or they can do as I have suggested and just focus on making the offense so good that the other team has to become one dimensional, thus making the defenses’ job easier. I honestly think the latter tactic is the only way to make the Cowboys a playoff contender this season.

15. Cleveland Browns (via trade with the Philadelphia Eagles): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU – So at this point the Browns have missed on some of the game changers they wanted, but they also now have the 22nd, 37th and 46th picks in the 2012 draft and another first rounder in 2013. The Browns need a running back, a tackle, a receiver and an outside linebacker. But Cleveland should be able to address those needs later without reaching here. Instead, I think the Browns take the best guy left on the board and that is Brockers. Pairing Brockers with Michelin Man impersonator Philip Taylor would give the Browns an impressive set of defensive tackles to anchor the defense for several years.

16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, OLB/DE, Alabama – Rex Ryan needs to retool the defense with some youth on the edge and Upshaw is dude that probably doesn’t have a set position in the NFL, but a dude like Ryan will find a way to get the most out of his skill set. Also, I don’t really give a shit if people don’t think he has a natural position. He is an ass kicker (said with Brock Lesnar’s Midwestern hick accent). Be happy Jets fans and don’t boo like a-holes.

Half-time of the mock draft hot lady picture from a nerd flick I'm excited about break!

17. Tennessee Titans trade the 20th overall selection, the 115th overall selection (4th round) and a 3rd round pick in the 2013 draft to the Cincinnati Bengals for the 17th overall selection: Quinton Couples, DE, North Carolina – I just looked at my board and realized Couples had not been taken yet. I think that makes Couples this year’s “holy shit, look what fell in my lap pick” (i.e., the “Nick Fairley Memorial Pick”). Tennessee has adequate starters at corner, and they could probably stay at 20 and get a good corner, but they also need defensive end help in a big way. Couples is arguably the best defensive end in the draft and the Titans know that he probably still won’t be around after the Charges and Bears pick.

The Bengals need help on the interior offensive line and in the secondary. There are no safeties to draft at this spot and there are a couple of good cornerback and line prospects on the board so they can probably still solve multiple problems even when they move down a few spots.

18. San Diego Chargers: Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse – The Chargers could use help on the offensive line, but they have all five starters returning from the end of the season and there are no lineman worth taking at this spot that would be surefire upgrades. They could also use this pick on Dontari Poe and make him the center of their 3-4 for years to come. But the Chargers need a big play guy on the edge and this pick does that.

19. Detroit Lions trade the 23rd overall selection and the 85th overall selection (3rd round) to the Chicago Bears for the 19th overall selection, the 111th overall selection (4th round) (FN 7), and the 150th overall selection (5th round): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina – With the Bengals picking at 20 and 21, the Lions know that Gilmore will be gone in one of the next two picks. The Lions need a number one corner and Gilmore is more likely to be that than Kirkpatrick. The Lions also need an offensive tackle, but if they don’t do something to shore up the back seven they will be playing a never ending string of 45-42 games in 2012. The Lions fill a need with a better player here and hope that a decent right tackle slides to them later.

20. Cincinnati Bengals (via trade with the Tennessee Titans): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama – The Bengals have the next pick so we’ll discuss them together.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia – All goes according to plan for the Bengals (FN 6). If the Bengals can get one of the top offensive guards (DeCastro or Glenn) and one of the top two corners after Claiborne (Gilmore or Kirkpatrick) then Cincinnati fans should pretend they don’t live in the dying remains of a racist, uptight, hell hole for one night and celebrate.

Spending all of those years being a horrible executive really makes your good moves seem that much better now. Way to set the bar low for two decades Mike.

22. Cleveland Browns: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor – I would not be surprised at all to see the Browns get Jonathan Martin and form a solid set of tackles for the next several years, but the Browns need playmakers. Wright seems to fit better with what the Browns want to do than other receivers (e.g., Stephen Hill) and there are some good offensive tackles that will be available when the Browns pick early in round 2. Bonus selections! (guitar wail and flashing lights) – look for the Browns to get David Wilson from Virgina Tech at 37 to fill their need at running back and noted pot head Mike Adams in the second round at 46 to fill their need for an offensive tackle, thus earning an “A” from all of the draft graders, myself included. 2012 will suck Cleveland, but this draft paired with a lot of high round picks in 2013 will be put you on the road to being competitive soon.

23. Chicago Bears (via a trade with the Detroit Lions): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford – I know, you think I’m crazy for predicting that the Bears would do business with the Lions on draft day, but I think it makes sense for both parties. Everyone in the world is predicting that the Bears will use their first round pick on a defensive end, but I disagree. The promotion of Mike Tice to offensive coordinator was meant to signal a greater reliance on the running game. It better, because Jay Cutler has taken a brutal fucking beating for two years. Lovie Smith can find guys to fit his defense in later rounds (he always does), but the Bears need a better offense to compete in a division with the Packers and Lions. Getting Brandon Marshall was a great first step, but he won’t get the ball if Cutler is constantly on his ass. Martin projects to be a solid pro and seems like a no-brainer pick here.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis – Fuck you Steelers. This is the perfect situation for Poe to come into, serve an apprenticeship behind Casey Hampton, and then become a monster in the middle of the Steelers defense for 10 years. The only problem with this pick for the Steelers is that if they don’t get some more help on the offensive line Ben Roethlisberger is going to get injured and then who will be the rape leader on the team? WHO? If Martin or Glenn slides for any reason then I think the Steelers take one of them here.

25. Denver Broncos: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State – The Broncos need a defensive lineman and there will probably be heart palpitations all across Denver when the Steelers’ pick is announced, with everyone in the Rockies praying to Jesus that Dontari Poe will fall to Denver. Well bad news Broncos fans – Jesus left town when you traded Megachurch to New York so don’t expect any more special favors. Just take Jerel Worthy and focus on the fact you won the Peyton Manning sweepstakes.

You better draft well Broncos because your biggest fan and, let's face it, your best player probably left with Tebow to go to the Jets.

26. Houston Texans: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU – Not seeing an offensive lineman they want to draft at this point, the Texans get a receiver to pair with Andre Johnson (and to serve as a threat when Johnson is injured). At this point it’s Randle or Stephen Hill and Houston, who is certainly in win now mode, is more likely to go with the more finished product in Randle.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars trade the 38th overall selection (2nd round), the 101st overall selection (4th round) and a third round pick in the 2013 draft to the New England Patriots for the 27th overall selection: Whitney Mercilis, DE, Illinois – At this point in the draft there will be a few decent edge rushers left on the board, which New England needs, but Bill won’t be able to resist the opportunity to trade down, load up on more picks that he will trade down with later, and let the media discuss how he is the master of getting value out of his picks. Here is some value I’ll provide to you Patriots fans – your defense sucks. You need impact players and it would be nice if one day Belichick made a trade up to get a real impact player on the defensive side of the ball instead of constantly turning fourth round rookies into starting cornerbacks that people think are good because the Patriots are winning, but in reality suck because Tom Brady is a fucking Jedi and constantly bails this team out.

Having issued a mustache veto at the seventh pick, Khan leaves to celebrate with Floyd on his yacht and the front office cobbles this trade together to address a major area of concern for the Jags. The trade allows Jacksonville to jump ahead of a string of teams about to draft edge players and get one of the more intriguing prospects in the draft.

28. Green Bay Packers: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC – The Packers need a pass rusher to compliment Clay Matthews and Perry is probably the best player left to be an attacking guy off the edge. The Packers could use help all along the front seven, but Perry gives them the immediate threat they need to hopefully upgrade their defense from “God awful” to “almost adequate”, which combined with the Packers offense might as well be called “Super Bowl worthy.”

29. St. Louis Rams trade the 39th overall selection, the 96th overall selection (4th round) and the 171st overall selection (6th round) to the Baltimore Ravens for the 29th overall selection: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech - I see a lot of discussion about the Ravens taking Dont’a Hightower here, but the great Ozzie Newsome knows that he has several holes to fill on this roster and getting a guard/center is probably more important than finding an inside linebacker this year. This trade probably allows the Ravens to get someone like Peter Konz (G/C, Wisconsin) who can play guard and fill an immediate need next to Matt Birk while also being groomed to be his replacement. It also gives Ozzie the first pick in the fourth round which allows him to spend all night Friday shopping it to the highest bidder so he can get more picks. And I don’t know about you, but for some reason I have the sneaking suspicion that Baltimore will be drafting this year’s top overall fuck up Vontaze Burficut late in the draft and that Ray, Terrell and Ed will straighten his shit out real quick and make him into a very good pro.

As for the Rams, in case you hadn’t heard, they kind of have valuable draft picks falling out of their ass for the next couple of years, so if a guy as highly regarded as Hill (who also fills a need) is still sitting on the board at this point you can secure him while still having the first pick in the second round to get another offensive lineman or the best defensive tackle on the board at that point.

Don't worry Bill. Your inability to upgrade your defense won't be questioned as long as you keep trading around a lot in the draft. People will just assume your getting good value because Tom Brady is dragging your teams to Super Bowls that you lose.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin – Um, so, people keep saying that guard is the biggest need for the 49ers and since I can’t really figure out how they played so well last year I think I just have to believe what I read. I do know that the 49ers like to run a lot and that their starting right guard, who was the worst guy on their line, left for Arizona (funny). So I guess this pick makes sense. I don’t really care. The real Alex Smith is going to show up in 2012 and all of the guards in the world won’t keep this team from being .500.

31. New England Patriots: Shea McClellin, OLB, Boise State – I think the Patriots would want to trade down again just to prove they can make a Super Bowl with no first round picks, but I don’t know why a team would jump to this spot given where the board is at. I don’t think a team (e.g., the Colts or Vikings) will jump up to take one of the remaining offensive tackles because there are two fairly good prospects left (Mike “4:20″ Adams and Bobby Massie) unless they were absolutely convinced that the Giants are taking a tackle. A team might really want Coby Fleener, but I don’t see a team at the top of the second round that will want to move up for him. Bill should just sit still and take this guy. He is exactly the type of hustling white guy that pans out for the Patriots.

32. New York Giants: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford – The Giants need another offensive weapon to replace Mario Manningham and Fleener does that while become the legitimate tight end this team has needed since Jeremy Shockey left. If he doesn’t go here, I think he may go to the Colts with the second pick of the next round to make Luck more comfortable. The Giants also need offensive line and linebacker help, but they won the Super Bowl last year with a decimated back seven. As long as the front four keeps up the pressure, this team just needs to score enough points to make the other team one dimensional. Also, his name rhymes with wiener so in my book he’s a can’t miss selection for the Giants.

Well that was fun. If you have made it through all 6,400+ words someone should send you a cookie. Please provide any commentary you have below and be prepared to discuss at the Draft Party.

"I'm sorry Coby, you said it is pronounced 'flea-ner'?"

FN 1 – This is currently my second favorite non-sexual surprise jersey reveal scenario. Number one is Obama winning re-election and then ripping open his shirt during the inaugural address to reveal a bejeweled t-shirt that says, “I’m a Kenyan Muslim.” If he did that I would give up eating bacon until his second term was up, which I consider to be a greater sacrifice than death.

FN 2 – In a slight modification of the deal posed above, I can also see the Bills trading the 10th overall pick, the 41st overall selection (2nd round), the 144th overall selection (5th round) to get the 4th overall selection from the Browns, but I think the trade in the text above makes more sense for both teams. The Bills want to keep picks in this draft to make their team better this year and the Browns want an additional first round pick to use next year, probably as ammo to trade up for Matt Barkley.

FN 3 - I’m going to take a moment for a brief aside that may merit further explanation later, but I have a counter to the concept of building teams “from the inside out” that you hear so much about at this time of year. I think for a defense, it is more appropriate to imagine the shape of Ionic Roman Columns instead of a blast zone centered around the ball. In today’s NFL you need guys who can come off of and defend the edge (defensive ends or outside linebackers in a 3-4), but I will concede that it is best to have a dominant defensive tackle or two. So, assuming a 4-3 defense, I think you want to radiate straight down the line from the ball (tackle, end and then corner), loop up and to get the safeties and then get your middle linebacker followed by your outside linebackers. On offense you have to take away the quarterback from fun time shape/draft making (because we all know he’s the most important) and then I would be inclined to argue, against what I have said in other parts of this post, that you start at receiver, move to the tackles, the interior line and then up to the running backs. Wide receivers and tight ends today are freaks of nature. Passing games in the league have really evolved to take advantage of the full space around a potential receiving target (think of the back shoulder throws made by Aaron Rodgers or the vertical windows Drew Brees throws to on seam routes for Jimmy Graham to jump up and catch) in a way not seen in previous generations. If you want a high-powered offense, you need guys on the edge that can make all of those catches. And although you can find guys who make great receivers in the later rounds (e.g., Victor Cruz), the guy you expect to man up and get ten catches for you in the Super Bowl is probably a first rounder (e.g., Hakeem Nicks). You may not necessarily prioritize your draft around this concept because general managers in the NFL still seem to be uncertain about what makes a quality receiver in this league so you can get some good guys late, but you can get a lot further in this league with a great QB, really good receivers and an average line (e.g., 2010 Packers, just about every Colts team for the last decade plus) than you can with a great QB, average receivers and a really good line.

FN 4 – Fletcher Cox wins my “Best Name of the First Round” Award. There are sooooooooo many jokes just oozing out of the end of that name.

FN 5 – A quick aside about high school football. There may still be a legitimate debate about which state, Texas or Florida, produces the most overall football talent, but the case is closed when it comes to producing quarterbacks. Three of likely top eight picks in this draft (Luck, Griffin and Tannehill) all played high school football in Texas. After this draft, assuming all three of these guys start the majority of their team’s games, of the assumed 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, 10 will have played their high school football in Texas (Luck, Griffin, Tannehill, Matthew Stafford, Christian Ponder, Drew Brees, Matt Flynn, Kevin Kolb, Andy Dalton, and Colt McCoy). In case you were wondering, an impressive six starting quarterbacks played their high school ball in California (Tom Brady, Mark Sanchez, Matt Cassel, Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and Alex Smith).

FN 6 – How often do you read that sentence about the Cincinnati Bengals?

FN 7 – Please read the comments section for a revision to this sure to be accurate prediction. I was starting to get tired head around this pick.

Sports Nostradamus’ Mini Mock Draft

Posted: 26th April 2012 by The Draft Party Host in NFL Draft
Tags: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Sports Nostradam

Prepare to be blown away by these picks!

It looks like J Quincy has inspired about 10% of this blog’s readership, because everyone’s favorite seer of the future, Sports Nostradamus, went to a quiet place to clear his head and present to you, the Draft Party Blog nation, his unique vision for the first two picks of the 2012 NFL Draft:

“I am sure most of you know that the NFL draft is very close. It is a known fact that Sports Nostradamas has predicted the first two picks of each NFL draft for the last 30 or so years. This draft is no different. Here are my predictions and a few “power points” as to why these are my picks.

1. Indianapolis Colts – I predict that the Colts will select quarterback Andrew Luck from Stanford. Luck threw a lot of touchdown passes the last few seasons and as most people know the Colts lost Peyton Manning to another NFL team in the off season. The Colts are in need of a quarterback and will more than likely use their top pick to get one. I think it will probably be Luck.

2. Washington Redskins – I predict the Redskins will select Robert Griffin III out of Baylor. The Redskins have not had a decent QB since Sammy Baugh and Doug Williams. They will try to combine those two players (a Texas high school football star and a black man) with the pick of Robert Griffin III.”

“And with the (fart noise) pick, the Dallas Cowboys select…” (with special guest J Quincy)

Posted: 24th April 2012 by The Draft Party Host in Dallas Cowboys, Football
Tags: Brandon Brooks, Bruce Irvin, Dontari Poe, J Quincy, James Hannah, Josh Robinson, Korey Williams, Markelle Martin, Philip Blake, The Juggernaut

Incredibly Accurate Picture of the Author of this Piece

My brother in blogdom and wiener cousin (FN 1) J Quincy has done all of you a great favor. He has prepared a Cowboy focused mock draft. I love it! One of my 12 readers taking ownership and submitting their own work for rigorous peer review. I will have up a full first round mock draft very soon, but until then please (1) consider submitting your own mock draft for your favorite team that I will post, and (2) enjoy this appetizer mock draft:

Round 1 (14^th overall): Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

Notes: The Cowboys 1^st priority should be David DeCastro here, but everyone in the free world knows that the most pro-ready, can’t miss player at any position in this whole draft will be long gone by the time they are on the clock at 14. If he is, then they get a 2-fer in Dontari Poe; A.) he’ll be the true Nose Tackle that this team sorely needs, and B.) They move Jay Ratliff back out to DE, where he’s a more natural fit.

Round 2, Pick 13 (45^th overall): Josh Robinson, CB, UCF

Notes: The single fastest 40 time in the draft this year and a guy who almost exclusively played man coverage in college. The NFL loves dudes like this.

I am so thankful he's doing that with his shirt on

Round 3, Pick 18 (81^st overall): Philip Blake, C, Baylor

Notes: The second best true center in the draft behind Peter Konz from Wisconsin.

Round 4, Pick 18 (118^th overall): Markelle Martin, S, Oklahoma State

Notes: Trenton Robinson, S from Michigan State, could be a viable option here as well.

Round 4, Pick 40 (135^th overall): Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia

Notes: Ryan Broyles, WR from Oklahoma, would be a nice pick here as well.

Round 5, Pick 17 (152^nd overall): Brandon Brooks, G, Miami of Ohio

Notes: There might have to be a trade up to the front of the 5^th round for this guy. His measurable are as good as any G in the draft. The only reason why he’s a mid-round prospect is because he didn’t get an invite to the Combine. Only God knows why. If he is gone by this point in the draft –which is highly likely- look for the Cowboys to take Ron Leary OG/OT from Memphis.

Visual approximation of Dontari Poe

Round 6, Pick 16 (186^th overall): James Hannah, TE, Oklahoma

Notes: Fastest 40 time (4.49) of any TE in the draft. Not bad for a 3^rd stringer, eh?

Round 7, Pick 15 (222^nd overall): Korey Williams, ILB, Southern Mississippi

Notes: According WalterFootball.com: “Williams’ season ended in the fourth game due to a torn ACL. He assembled 35 tackles with 3.5 tackles for a loss, three interceptions and two pass breakups before the injury”. He did all that in 4 F*@#&*%$!!KING games?!?!? I’ll take it in the 7^th round any day.

In closing:

I am fully aware that I am going to be wrong on every one of these picks. I’ve seen Brandon Brooks projected as high as the 2^nd(!) round, and Josh Robinson as low as the 4^th. That said, if I am right on at least some of these, I truly believe this will be a very good year for the little Cowboys.

You might’ve noticed a conspicuous absence of WRs taken in my Cowboys mock. That is because I truly believe they will address that position with a veteran free agent or two at some point. Names that spark my interest are Santana Moss (assuming the Foreskins do what everyone expects them to do and they cut him), Jerome Simpson (assuming his probable suspension won’t go more than 4 games) (FN 2), and/or Mark Clayton (I know you think he’s made of glass –and you’d be right- but so was Laurent Robinson before he came to the Cowboys. Besides, when Clayton’s healthy, he’s not bad). Braylon Edwards slightly moves my needle too, but only slightly. (FN 3)

You'll make a fine seventh round selection sir. We love taking linebackers who are a year away, so you'll fit in fine.

FN 1 – I’m pretty sure we broke off the same squirrel on a camping trip once. And no, squirrel is not a euphemism.

FN 2 – Between sending this article to me and my publishing of it, Jerome Simpson signed with the Vikings.

FN 3 – Braylon Edwards makes my needle want to invert back into my body or just fall off and get eaten by a cat.

Draft Party Blog

Subscribe

Recent Posts

Email Your Thoughts/Stories

Twitter – More of this with less words

Looking for something insightful? Try another site: